Tuesday 19 February 2008

A WAY TO SEE A WORLD WITHOUT AGRICTURAL SUBSIDIES

A WAY TO SEE A WORLD WITHOUT AGRICTURAL SUBSIDIES

Is ‘Free Trade,’ the magic mantra which has mesmerised the minds of the Western people, really a euphemism for ‘Freak Trade’? Despite all efforts the starvation deaths and hunger keep rising. The protests simply have not worked. This failure is largely due to the lack of an evidential basis linking cause and effect. We need something more palpable and tangible than NGO researched appeals.

What if there had been no agricultural subsidies?

A projection can answer the question, ‘what if there had been no agricultural subsidies.’ The common projection based approach is constantly used by Governments and business. Projections are the basis of every forward plan. Projections or budgets have acceptance and are an established instrument in the public mind. Transnationals incessantly use projections. Belief in the value of projections is an article of faith in the transnationals’ credo.

This would be an exercise in the academically recognized field of counter factual history which aims to ascertain the relative importance of the event, incident or person the counterfactual hypothesis is negating. The highlighted event would be the giving, since 1977 of subsidies or the maintenance of tariffs along with the giving of subsidies.

According to an estimated casting such a projection would show treble the wealth, half the starvation deaths and twice the number of children receiving education in the agriculture based countries and that their economies have been weakened by deficits of as much as $10,000 billion, accumulated on a net present value basis over 30 years, thereby depriving them of the ability to build resources to deal with fire, flood or natural disaster or even to feed their people.

Fact based assumptions by businessmen of high public recognition and due diligence by internationally renowned experts would be necessary but such a projection can cost under $100,000.